Ahead of President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum's October 1 inauguration, Mexico's Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) has finalized the macroeconomic parameters of the 2025 Economic Package, committing to reduce the broad public sector borrowing requirement (RFSP) from approximately 5.9% of gross domestic product in 2024 to 3.5% of GDP in 2025. Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O, who accepted Sheinbaum's invitation to remain at the helm of Hacienda, briefed institutional investors on the consolidation roadmap prior to the formal November 15 budget submission to Congress.
Mexico's 2024 fiscal deficit reached its widest level since the late 1980s as outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador accelerated spending to complete signature infrastructure projects, including the Maya Train railway, the Olmeca Dos Bocas oil refinery, and the Interoceanic Corridor across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, while simultaneously expanding universal old-age pensions.
Winding Down Infrastructure Megaproject Outlays to Restore Fiscal Balance
Treasury officials explained that the completion of those capital-intensive construction works will naturally free up more than 1.5 percentage points of GDP in non-recurring public investment during 2025. The remaining adjustment will be achieved through strict austerity in federal administrative overhead, lower domestic debt-servicing costs following the Bank of Mexico's interest rate cuts, and enhanced tax collection efficiency.
Sheinbaum reiterated that her administration will not propose sweeping tax hikes on households or corporations in the first year of her six-year term. Instead, the government plans to generate up to 300 billion pesos ($15.2 billion) in additional public receipts by modernizing customs inspection technology at ports and northern border crossings and tightening digital invoicing audits through the Tax Administration Service (SAT).
“Fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability are the cornerstones of our economic program; reducing the deficit to around 3.5 percent of GDP in 2025 will keep debt sustainable while funding our social priorities.”
Reassuring Sovereign Credit Rating Agencies and Currency Markets
The budget blueprint also incorporates funding for Sheinbaum's new social welfare commitments—including financial support for women aged 60 to 64 and universal scholarships for public basic education students—alongside initial engineering studies for 3,000 kilometers of new passenger rail lines connecting Mexico City to northern industrial hubs in Querétaro, Monterrey, and Nuevo Laredo.
Sovereign bond analysts and credit rating agencies—including Fitch, Moody's, and S&P Global—have closely monitored Mexico's fiscal trajectory and the financial liabilities of state oil company Pemex. Currency strategists noted that following the Bank of Mexico's recent 25-basis-point rate cut to 10.50%, a credible 2025 budget targeting a 3.5% deficit will be pivotal in stabilizing the Mexican peso near 19.60 per dollar and preserving Mexico's investment-grade sovereign credit ratings.
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